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Scientists in ICTP's Earth System Physics section publish their research in some of the world's most prestigious journals; for the latest publications, see below.

Journal article
2026
Has the fire weather index emerged? Insights from global and regional climate models
Weather and Climate Extremes (2026)
Rita Nogherotto | Francesca Raffaele | Graziano Giuliani | Erika Coppola
Journal article
2026
Correction to: The attribution of human health outcomes to climate change: transdisciplinary practical guidance
Climatic Change (2026)
K. L. Ebi | A. Haines | R. F. S. Andrade | C. Åström | M. L. Barreto | A. Bonell | K. Bowen | N. Brink | C. Caminade | C. J. Carlson | R. Carter | P. Chua | G. Cissé | F. J. Colón-González | S. Dasgupta | L. A. Galvao ...
Journal article
2026
The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information
Earth's Future (2026)
Douglas Maraun | Dragana Bojovic | Wendy Parker | Theodore G. Shepherd | Stefan Sobolowski | Cyril Caminade | Alessandro Dosio | William J. Gutowski | Anna Sörensson | Leandro B. Diaz | Ibrahima Diouf | Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes ...
Journal article
2026
High resolution physically based modelling reveals malaria incidence reduction by vector control measures
Scientific Reports (2026)
Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng | Stephan Munga | Adrian M. Tompkins | Miguel Garrido Zornoza | Cyril Caminade | Benjamin Fersch | Joël Arnault | Sammy Khagayi | Maximilian Schwarz | Simon Kariuki | Godfrey Bigogo | Harald Kunstmann
Journal article
2026
Impact of wind forcing on the equatorial Pacific interannual variability in Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) simulations
Climate Dynamics (2026)
Arthur Prigent | Riccardo Farneti | Fred Kucharski | Antonietta Capotondi | Joke F. Lübbecke
Journal article
2025
A global CORDEX-based dataset delineating urban areas and their surroundings to assess climate change in megacities
Scientific Data (2025)
Javier Diez-Sierra | Yaiza Quintana | Gaby S. Langendijk | Josipa Milovac | Matthias Demuzere | Rita Nogherotto | Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen | Diana Rechid | Natalia Zazulie | Silvina A. Solman | Jesús Fernández
Journal article
2025
Drying Tropical America Under Global Warming: Mechanism and Emergent Constraint
Geophysical Research Letters (2025)
Chao He | Xiaolong Chen | Tianjun Zhou | Fred Kucharski | Fengfei Song
Journal article
2025
Interannual variability of net primary productivity in the northwest African coastal upwelling system and their relation to Dakar Niños
Scientific Reports (2025)
Rodrigue Anicet Imbol Koungue | Arthur Prigent | Joke F. Lübbecke | Peter Brandt | Julien Jouanno
Journal article
2025
Potential for Machine Learning Emulators to Augment Regional Climate Simulations in Provision of Local Climate Change Information
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2025)
Elizabeth J. Kendon | Henry Addison | Antoine Doury | Samuel Somot | Peter A. G. Watson | Ben B. B. Booth | Erika Coppola | José Manuel Gutiérrez | James Murphy | Calum Scullion
Journal article
2025
Graph neural networks for hourly precipitation projections at the convection permitting scale with a novel hybrid imperfect framework
Environmental Data Science (2025)
Valentina Blasone | Erika Coppola | Guido Sanguinetti | Viplove Arora | Serafina Di Gioia | Luca Bortolussi
Journal article
2025
The 5th generation regional climate modeling system, RegCM5: the first convection-permitting European wide simulation and validation over the CORDEX-CORE domains
Climate Dynamics (2025)
Erika Coppola | Filippo Giorgi | Graziano Giuliani | Emanuela Pichelli | James M. Ciarlo | Francesca Raffaele | Rita Nogherotto | Michelle Simões Reboita | Chen Lu | Natalia Zazulie | Luiza Vargas-Heinz | Andressa Andrade Cardoso ...
Journal article
2025
A climate suitability index for species distribution modelling applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean region
Earth System Dynamics (2025)
James M. Ciarlo' | Monique Borg Inguanez | Erika Coppola | Aaron Micallef | David Mifsud

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All publications
Journal article
2024
Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns
Nature Geoscience (2024)
Dong, C. | Noyelle, R. | Messori, G. | Gualandi, A. | Fery, L. | Yiou, P. | Vrac, M. | D’Andrea, F. | Camargo, S.J. | Coppola, E. | Balsamo, G. | Chen, C. | Faranda, D. | Mengaldo, G.
Journal article
2024
Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events
Physical Review E (2024)
Faranda, D. | Messori, G. | Alberti, T. | Alvarez-Castro, C. | Caby, T. | Cavicchia, L. | Coppola, E. | Donner, R.V. | Dubrulle, B. | Galfi, V.M. | Holmberg, E. | Lembo, V. | Noyelle, R. | Yiou, P. | Spagnolo, B. | Valenti, D. ...
Journal article
2024
The added value of simulated near-surface wind speed over the Alps from a km-scale multimodel ensemble
Climate Dynamics (2024)
Molina, M.O. | Careto, J.M. | Gutiérrez, C. | Sánchez, E. | Goergen, K. | Sobolowski, S. | Coppola, E. | Pichelli, E. | Ban, N. | Belus̆ić, D. | Short, C. | Caillaud, C. | Dobler, A. | Hodnebrog, Ø. | Kartsios, S. ...
Journal article
2024
Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024)
O’Reilly, C.H. | Brunner, L. | Qasmi, S. | Nogherotto, R. | Ballinger, A.P. | Booth, B. | Befort, D.J. | Knutti, R. | Schurer, A.P. | Ribes, A. | Weisheimer, A. | Coppola, E. | McSweeney, C.
Journal article
2024
Towards better understanding the urban environment and its interactions with regional climate change - The WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study URB-RCC
Urban Climate (2024)
Langendijk, G.S. | Halenka, T. | Hoffmann, P. | Adinolfi, M. | Aldama Campino, A. | Asselin, O. | Bastin, S. | Bechtel, B. | Belda, M. | Bushenkova, A. | Campanale, A. | Chun, K.P. | Constantinidou, K. | Coppola, E. ...
Journal article
2024
ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
Weather and Climate Dynamics (2024)
Faranda, D. | Messori, G. | Coppola, E. | Alberti, T. | Vrac, M. | Pons, F. | Yiou, P. | Saint Lu, M. | Hisi, A.N.S. | Brockmann, P. | Dafis, S. | Mengaldo, G. | Vautard, R.
Journal article
2024
Impacts of Changing Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on Aviation Turbulence Over Europe
Geophysical Research Letters (2024)
Alberti, T. | Faranda, D. | Rapella, L. | Coppola, E. | Lepreti, F. | Dubrulle, B. | Carbone, V.
Book chapter
2024
Biodiversity Conservation, Ecosystem Services and One Health
Principles of One Health for a better planet (2024)
Barry J. McMahon | Cyril Caminade | Daniele de Meneghi | Caoimhe Doyle | Julie Garnier | Martin Hitziger | Hans Keune | Richard Kock | Claire Martin | Grace Patterson | K. Marie McIntyre
Journal article
2024
The effect of climate change and temperature extremes on Aedes albopictus populations: a regional case study for Italy
Journal of The Royal Society Interface (2024)
Miguel Garrido Zornoza | Cyril Caminade | Adrian M. Tompkins
Journal article
2024
The Interdecadal Changes of the Relationship Between May‐June and July‐August NWPSH and Their Physical Mechanisms
Geophysical Research Letters (2024)
Shuai Li | Fred Kucharski | Jie Yang | ZhiQiang Gong | Yuxuan Zhao | Guolin Feng
Book chapter
2024
Arboviruses, Vectors, Poverty and Climate Change
Climate Change and Global Health (2024)
Colin D. Butler, | Cyril Caminade | Andrew P. Morse
Journal article
2024
Amazon drought amplifies SST warming in the North Tropical Atlantic
Climate Dynamics (2024)
Lou, W. | Sun, C. | Kucharski, F. | Li, J. | Liu, Y.
Journal article
2024
Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
Climate Dynamics (2024)
Rashid, I.U. | Abid, M.A. | Osman, M. | Kucharski, F. | Ashfaq, M. | Weisheimer, A. | Almazroui, M. | Torres-Alavez, J.A. | Afzaal, M.
Journal article
2024
An assessment of equatorial Atlantic interannual variability in Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) simulations
Ocean Science (2024)
Arthur Prigent | Riccardo Farneti
Journal article
2024
Drivers and impact of the 2021 extreme warm event in the tropical Angolan upwelling system
Scientific Reports (2024)
Rodrigue Anicet Imbol Koungue | Peter Brandt | Arthur Prigent | Léo Costa Aroucha | Joke Lübbecke | Arielle Stela N. Imbol Nkwinkwa | Marcus Dengler | Noel Keenlyside
Journal article
2024
Process‐Based Atmosphere‐Hydrology‐Malaria Modeling: Performance for Spatio‐Temporal Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Water Resources Research (2024)
Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng | Adrian M. Tompkins | Joël Arnault | Ali Sié | Benjamin Fersch | Patrick Laux | Maximilian Schwarz | Pascal Zabré | Stephen Munga | Sammy Khagayi | Ibrahima Diouf | Harald Kunstmann
Journal article
2024
Future weakening of southeastern tropical Atlantic Ocean interannual sea surface temperature variability in a global climate model
Climate Dynamics (2024)
Arthur Prigent | Rodrigue Anicet Imbol Koungue | Joke F. Lübbecke | Peter Brandt | Jan Harlaß | Mojib Latif
Journal article
2024
Converging Findings of Climate Models and Satellite Observations on the Positive Impact of European Forests on Cloud Cover
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2024)
Luca Caporaso | Gregory Duveiller | Graziano Giuliani | Filippo Giorgi | Martin Stengel | Emanuele Massaro | Matteo Piccardo | Alessandro Cescatti
Journal article
2024
A Multi‐Data Set Analysis of the Freshwater Transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at Nominally 34.5°S
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2024)
Cristina Arumí‐Planas | Shenfu Dong | Renellys Perez | Matthew J. Harrison | Riccardo Farneti | Alonso Hernández‐Guerra
Journal article
2024
A Novel Gravity Wave Transport Parametrization for Global Chemistry Climate Models: Description and Validation
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2024)
Guarino, M.-V. | Gardner, C.S. | Feng, W. | Funke, B. | García-Comas, M. | López-Puertas, M. | Kupilas, M.M. | Marsh, D.R. | Plane, J.M.C.
Journal article
2024
The effect of explicit convection on simulated malaria transmission across Africa
PLOS ONE (2024)
Joshua Talib | James Colborn | Abayomi A. Abatan | Remy HoekSpaans | Edmund I. Yamba | Temitope S. Egbebiyi | Cyril Caminade | Anne Jones | Cathryn E. Birch | Oladapo M. Olagbegi | Andrew P. Morse
Journal article
2024
Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2024)
Fred Kucharski
Journal article
2024
Climate-influenced vector-borne diseases in Africa: a call to empower the next generation of African researchers for sustainable solutions
Infectious Diseases of Poverty (2024)
Judicaël Obame-Nkoghe | Adjoavi Esse Agossou | Gerald Mboowa | Basile Kamgang | Cyril Caminade | Dawn C. Duke | Andrew Karanja Githeko | Obed M. Ogega | Nestor Engone Elloué | Fatou Bintou Sarr | Dieudonné Nkoghe ...
Journal article
2024
Investigating the representation of heatwaves from an ensemble of km-scale regional climate simulations within CORDEX-FPS convection
Climate Dynamics (2024)
Sangelantoni, L. | Sobolowski, S. | Lorenz, T. | Hodnebrog, Ø. | Cardoso, R.M. | Soares, P.M.M. | Ferretti, R. | Lavín-Gullón, A. | Fernandez, J. | Goergen, K. | Milovac, J. | Katragkou, E. | Kartsios, S. | Coppola, E. ...
Journal article
2024
Author Correction: Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, (2023), 6, 1, (181), 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024)
Faranda, D. | Ginesta, M. | Alberti, T. | Coppola, E. | Anzidei, M.
Journal article
2024
Precipitation Diurnal Cycle Assessment in Convection-Permitting Simulations in Southeastern South America
Earth Systems and Environment (2024)
Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha | Marta Llopart | Michelle Simões Reboita | Maria Laura Bettolli | Silvina Solman | Jesús Fernández | Josipa Milovac | Martín Feijoó | Erika Coppola
Journal article
2024
Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024)
Giorgia Fosser | Marco Gaetani | Elizabeth J. Kendon | Marianna Adinolfi | Nikolina Ban | Danijel Belušić | Cécile Caillaud | João A. M. Careto | Erika Coppola | Marie-Estelle Demory | Hylke de Vries | Andreas Dobler ...
Journal article
2024
The climate change response of alpine-mediterranean heavy precipitation events
Climate Dynamics (2024)
Müller, S.K. | Pichelli, E. | Coppola, E. | Berthou, S. | Brienen, S. | Caillaud, C. | Demory, M.-E. | Dobler, A. | Feldmann, H. | Mercogliano, P. | Tölle, M. | de Vries, H.
Journal article
2024
Multi-decadal pacemaker simulations with an intermediate-complexity climate model
WEATHER AND CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2024)
Fred Kucharski
Journal article
2024
Seasonal variability and predictability of monsoon precipitation in Southern Africa
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2024)
Fred Kucharski

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