ESP

Europe/Rome 2021-04-22 15:00:00 2021-04-22 16:30:00 Numerical modeling studies of atmospheric dispersion of pollutant around obstacles Lecture 7 of series on Environmental Meteorology: From the Fundamentals of Climate to Operational Applications Register in advance for this meeting: https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0lcuyurDMrEtbfP9f16GRLzqF1AiT7PHN7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: In urban neighborhood and around industrial plants, the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants is strongly affected by the presence of buildings. They affect the mean flow field and the turbulence and these in turn will affect the concentrations levels. We describe the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics models (adapted for the atmosphere), following either an Eulerian/Eulerian approach or an hybrid Eulerian/Lagrangian formulation. The results are illustrated using measurements of the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) campaign performed in the USA. Using the same field campaign, we will also show how we can use data assimilation of the measurements between the buildings to improve the numerical simulation in urban environments. Zoom Meeting ICTP pio@ictp.it 22 Apr 2021

Europe/Rome 2021-04-29 15:00:00 2021-04-29 16:30:00 Modelling the dispersion of volcanic ash in the atmosphere: 10 years on from Eyjafjallajökull Lecture 8 of series on Environmental Meteorology: From the Fundamentals of Climate to Operational Applications Register in advance for this meeting: https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0lcuyurDMrEtbfP9f16GRLzqF1AiT7PHN7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: It has been 10 years since the ash cloud from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull caused unprecedented disruption to air traffic across Europe. During this event, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), hosted by the UK Met Office, provided advice and guidance on the expected location of volcanic ash in the atmosphere using observations and the atmospheric dispersion model NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-Dispersion Modelling Environment). Rapid changes in regulatory response and procedures during the eruption introduced the requirement to also provide forecasts of ash concentrations, representing a step-change in the level of interrogation of the dispersion model output. Although disruptive, the longevity of the event afforded the scientific community the opportunity to observe and extensively study the transport and dispersion of a volcanic ash cloud. I will discuss what we learnt from that event and the developments we have made to NAME in the decade since the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull. Much of the focus has been on improving the representation of the eruption source parameters which are subject to considerable uncertainty. This has included the application of Bayesian methods to reconstructing the source from satellite data and the use of integral plume models to determine the mass emission rate and other properties of the eruption column. Since the downwind spread of ash is sensitive to the distribution of ash particle size and density, considerable effort has also been made to improve their representation in NAME including secondary effects such as aggregation and particle shape. I will illustrate the effect of these and other changes to NAME. Zoom Meeting ICTP pio@ictp.it 29 Apr 2021

Europe/Rome 2021-05-06 15:00:00 2021-05-06 16:30:00 Wind farm revenues in Western Europe in present and future climate Lecture 9 of series on Environmental Meteorology: From the Fundamentals of Climate to Operational Applications Register in advance for this meeting: https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0lcuyurDMrEtbfP9f16GRLzqF1AiT7PHN7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Wind energy is one of the key drivers of energy transition, however the flow of investments into this industry is hampered by the uncertainty of the future revenues, arising from the natural variability of the resource, the impact of climate change on wind potential and future electricity prices, and the policy risks. In this article we quantify the uncertainty of the net present value of standardized wind farms in European countries and evaluate the level and cost of support mechanisms needed to guarantee the profitability of the wind fleet under present and future climate. To this end, we build a localized model for wind power output and a country-level model for electricity demand and prices taking into account hourly variation of wind, load and prices, using reanalysis data, climate projections and Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios. Our methodology is general, but for specific evaluations we focus on the examples of France, Germany and Denmark. Our study reveals that support mechanisms in these countries are needed for wind energy to be profitable under current market prices and current climate. Under future climate, using several scenarios for climate change and energy transition, we also show that the evolution of both price and wind production does not allow the wind energy industry in these countries to develop in a free market environment and that support mechanisms will still be needed in future. The cost of these support mechanisms for a 15-year period is evaluated to 57–172 billion euros in France, 232–397 billion euros in Germany, and 18–50 billion euros in Denmark, depending on the scenario considered and the level of penetration of wind energy. Zoom Meeting ICTP pio@ictp.it 6 May 2021

Europe/Rome 2021-05-13 15:00:00 2021-05-13 16:30:00 Artificial intelligence for climate impacts Lecture 10 of series on Environmental Meteorology: From the Fundamentals of Climate to Operational Applications Register in advance for this meeting: https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0lcuyurDMrEtbfP9f16GRLzqF1AiT7PHN7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Climate change adaptation in both public and private sectors urgently requires better risk quantification tools to inform decision-making and planning across multiple timescales. In this presentation, I will give an overview of the research activities in IBM’s “AI for Climate Impacts” research theme, an initiative to build resilience to climate change by developing AI-enhanced and cloud-enabled models to quantify climate risk. I will describe applications of AI techniques to the specific challenge of improving flood risk quantification, including the use of simulation model surrogates, automated ground truth mapping and model calibration, and machine learning approaches to quantifying and propagating multiple sources of uncertainty. Zoom Meeting ICTP pio@ictp.it 13 May 2021

Europe/Rome 2021-05-10 08:00:00 2021-05-19 22:00:00 Joint ICTP-IAEA Workshop on the Use of Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor for Soil Moisture Management and Validation of Remote Sensing Soil Moisture Maps | (smr 3574) An ICTP-IAEA virtual meeting Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor (CRNS) has potential for soil moisture monitoring of agricultural land. The results can be used for irrigation scheduling and extreme weather events forecasting. Remote sensing can extrapolate the acquired soil moisture data to larger areas.   The increasing demand for food production due to population increase and climatic hazards requires improving land management practices. One of major demands is to support the decision processes by reliable and representative information on soil moisture, which is difficult to obtain by conventional soil moisture measurements. CRNS is a suitable technique for this purpose since it is non-invasive and has a large footprint overcoming the problem of soil moisture spatial microvariability. The data acquired from CRNS measurements can be used for hydrological modelling, validation remote sensing soil moisture products and practical agricultural and environmental applications such as improving agricultural water use efficiency, irrigation scheduling, drought management and flood forecast. Topics:  Basic principles of soil moisture measurements using Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor (CRNS) Overview and demonstration of data download and data processing CRNS data products: time series filter, root zone moisture extrapolation and rainfall estimation Spatial mapping with CRNS Use of CRNS data for irrigation agriculture Use of CRNS for supporting agricultural land management Use of CRNS for supporting drought monitoring Added value of combining CRNS and point scale soil moisture Overview of remote sensing soil moisture data products Use of CRNS data for validation of remote sensing soil moisture products Applications of remote sensing soil moisture data products Factors affecting the accuracy of cosmic-ray neutron counts and estimated soil moisture Efforts to a harmonized data processing approach for cosmic-ray neutron sensors The use of cosmic-ray neutron sensors in hydrometeorology Speakers: G. BARONI, Alma Mater Studiorum – University of Bologna, Italy T. FRANZ, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA R. ROSOLEM, University of Bristol, UK W. WAGNER, Vienna University of Technology, Austria Registration: There is no registration fee.   Online - ICTP pio@ictp.it 10 May 2021 - 19 May 2021

Europe/Rome 2021-06-14 08:00:00 2021-07-02 22:00:00 Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development | (smr 3581) An ICTP virtual meeting Online - ICTP pio@ictp.it 14 Jun 2021 - 2 Jul 2021

Europe/Rome 2021-10-18 08:00:00 2021-10-29 22:00:00 Joint ICTP-IUGG Workshop on Data Assimilation and Inverse Problems in Geophysical Sciences | (smr 3607) An ICTP-IUGG Virtual meeting The Workshop will discuss state-of-the-art, applications and perspectives of data assimilation and inverse problems in geophysical sciences. World leading scientists will be attracted to the program to present and discuss these topics in relation to specific geophysical disciplines.   Understanding the complex operation of the Earth system requires an interdisciplinary approach and international collaboration. Data assimilation and modern methods of solving inverse problems provide unique opportunities to exploit such approach and collaboration by integrating data and information from disciplinary sources. These techniques become major forecasting tools in meteorology, oceanography, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, and recently they started to be applied to solid Earth problems. The workshop organized jointly by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), ICTP, and EAIFR will discuss applications of data assimilation and inverse problem methodologies to specific geophysical fields. The related scientific progress may contribute to the solutions of major societal challenges, such as climatic and environmental changes, disaster risk reduction, and sustainability. PhD students, postdocs, and advanced practitioners are encouraged to attend the workshop.   Topics: Inverse problems Data assimilation Atmospheric sciences and meteorology Oceanography Climatology Hydrology and cryospheric sciences Geodynamics and seismology Volcanology Geodesy Geomagnetism and aeronomy Registration: There is no registration fee.   Online - ICTP pio@ictp.it 18 Oct 2021 - 29 Oct 2021

Europe/Rome 2021-11-08 07:00:00 2021-11-12 21:00:00 10th ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models | (smr 3575) Online - ICTP pio@ictp.it 8 Nov 2021 - 12 Nov 2021